Qing ruler Dorgon. 

China’s Qing Dynasty Collapsed For Reasons That Feel Eerily Familiar

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Salve Citizens,

As we close the 3rd quarter or 2023, most would agree that the general state of society is decaying and is in need of a serious change. Central to this for our purpose, is, of course, the natural curiosity about the Global Settlements. As much as we would love to have unrestricted news on the matter, such a thing is just not possible. What you see released here, to greater or lesser degree, is as good as it can be. And it’s far more accurate and reliable than what is claimed elsewhere.

Case in point. Here is a brief comment and description of a backchannel communication between the key London GS trustee and an eager bureaucrat who felt entitled to demand a timetable on his terms:

In a world where silent hands steer the fate of nations, the Elders of Asia who live in China and Taiwan have spoken. Backed by their Trusted Brit, even Xi has to answer, and is under their watchful eyes.

“Because you don’t see it doesn’t mean it’s not happening”, as I responded to a pushy Lord today, when I asked who TF are YOU? It’s done when we say it’s done. We say, we pay. Until then you F well go away!  Hardball, or we take them!

So, please remember, the highly sensitive nature of this process is requiring very guarded news concerning its progress and status. But, but no means are you to think that such tacitness is due to inactivity or failure.

China is not immune to the vagaries of world economics. They have a similar history of turmoil akin to that experienced by most other empires of the past. Today, however, the stakes are much higher and the penalties for failure are severe and swift. To maneuver such a hugely populated world from beneath a general collapse, while achieving and maintaining sensitive political consensus is going to take careful timing and skill. Such responsibilities are not placed in the hands of unproven, unaccomplished parvenus.

We can learn from this past example in China that great empires can falter if they do not act swiftly to events which require intelligent planning and execution. Take this as a reason that the present ongoing GS matters must be guided and implemented with great care, or we risk a collapse of unimaginable magnitude, in a world where thermonuclear thunderclaps may be the last sounds heard by man before our history disappears forever. – WHA

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SOCIETY 08 September 2023

By DAVID NIELD

The Qing dynasty in China, despite its incredible socio-political success across two centuries, had collapsed to nothing by 1912. The reasons for the decline of the imperial system have long been debated, and a new study highlights three crucial factors that played a role – each of which are scarily familiar to us today.

Led by the Manchu people, the Great Qing took control of Beijing in 1644 and reached its greatest extent in terms of area by 1760. In 1820, the imperial dynasty had made China the world’s largest economy, but trouble lay ahead.

Here, researchers from Osaka University in Japan, Shanghai Normal University in China, the Evolution Institute and the University of Washington in the US, and the Complexity Science Hub Vienna in Austria, used structural-demographic theory (SDT) to chart the fall of the Qing dynasty.

The theory, which is based on mathematical models, splits societies into four sections: the state, the elites, the generation population, and an extra component that measures political instability. Each section influences the others in a dynamic way.

“We argue that the four-fold population explosion peaking in the 19th century, the growing competition for a stagnant number of elite positions, and increasing state fiscal stress combined to produce an increasingly disgruntled populace and elite, leading to significant internal rebellions,” write the researchers in their published paper.

Population growth led to overcrowding, poverty, and an overflow of qualified bureaucrats unable to rise up the ranks, the researchers say. The cost of keeping order, adding to burdens associated with depleting silver reserves and opium imports, exacerbated the problems even further.

It seems likely that the Qing rulers were fully aware of these problems – they just didn’t act smartly or quickly enough. A combination of internal uprisings and external geopolitical challengers ultimately sealed the fate of the dynasty.

“This clearly demonstrates that any economy must be vigilant as circumstances can change, and sometimes rather rapidly,” says Georg Orlandi, from Osaka University.

The team draws parallels between the conditions of the Qing dynasty’s fall and some of the issues and instabilities in today’s societies, including rising inequality and diminishing opportunities to progress – problems that governments would be wise to address.

That’s easier said than done though. These stresses often appear over the longer term, whereas governments are typically changing and evolving over the short term, and that means the fate of the Qing dynasty could well be repeated elsewhere.

“It’s crucial to comprehend the origins of such instabilities,” says Peter Turchin, from the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Austria. “Assuming it’s a thing of the past and can’t recur would be a mistake.”

“Such changes can indeed happen because the underlying mechanisms bear surprising similarities.”

The research has been published in PLOS ONE.

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Stay alert, and be ready for anything.

PAX ROMANA

WHA
S*P*Q*R*